According to a scientist of a government panel tasked with modelling of Covid-19 cases, a 3rd possible wave of the pandemic may hit its peak between October and November this year.
Apossible third wave of Covid-19 may hit its peak in October-November this year if Covid-appropriate behaviour isn't followed, but it's likely to ascertain half the amount of daily cases that were recorded during the second surge, said a scientist of the govt panel responsible of modelling Covid-19 cases.
However, if a replacement virulent variant of SARS-CoV-2 emerges, the infection will spread faster during the third wave, said scientist Manindra Agrawal.
He is a part of the expert panel formed by the Department of Science and Technology last year to forecast the surge of coronavirus cases using mathematical models. Besides Agrawal, who may be a professor at IIT-Kanpur, the panel also has M Vidyasagar, another scientist with IIT-Hyderabad, and Lt. Gen Madhuri Kanitkar, Deputy Chief (Medical) of Integrated Defence Staff, as members.
The panel came up with the Sutra Model last year to mathematically project the trajectory of Covid-19 in India. They were criticised earlier this year for not having predicted the ferocity of the second wave of the pandemic.
THIRD WAVE PREDICTIONS
On their predictions for the third wave, Manindra Agrawal said that loss of immunity, effects of vaccination and therefore the possibility of a more virulent variant are factored during this time, which wasn't done while modelling the second surge. an in depth report are going to be published soon.
In a series of tweets, Agrawal explained, "We have created three scenarios. One is optimistic, where we assume that life goes back to normal by August and there's no new mutant. Another is intermediate wherein we assume that vaccination is 20 per cent less effective additionally to optimistic scenario assumptions.
"The final one is pessimistic with assumptions different from the intermediate one: a replacement 25 per cent more infectious mutant spreads in August (it isn't Delta plus, which isn't more infectious than Delta variant)."
COMPARING WITH SECOND WAVE FIGURES
This figure is a smaller amount than half what was recorded during the second wave which hit its peak within the half of May. Hospitals were overburdened and therefore the deathrate reached a devastating peak at the time. On May 7, India had recorded 4,14,188 Covid-19 cases; this is often the very best figure registered during the second wave.
In the case of a replacement mutant emerging, the third wave can spread rapidly but it'll still be half what the second wave was, Agrawal said. "Delta variant is infecting people that contracted a special variant earlier. So this has been taken into consideration," he acknowledged .
As vaccination progresses, the likelihood of a 3rd or fourth wave reduce, he said.
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